2013 Employment Outlook
The unemployment rate is estimated to trend down to an average annual level of 7.8 percent in 2013, according to Staffing Industry Analysts, however, it is forecasted to reach 6.9 percent in 2015. Although a decrease in unemployment is expected, a 7.9 percent jobless rate in October 2012 is much higher than the 4.6 percent rate that was attained this month in 2007 before the recession began, thus there is much room for improvement.
Additionally, a Q4 Survey of Professional Forecasters released by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve notes that an average of 127,400 jobs per month will be added through Q1 of 2013. This number was previously estimated to be151, 700. Annually, the forecasters estimated that in 2013, the U.S. will add an average of 143,300 jobs per month, which is still less than the estimate of 155,600 for the current year.
Bloomberg news reports that temporary-help service businesses will also see a decrease in the level of influence they have in U.S. job creation as employers become more comfortable adding full-time employees. In the first half of 2012, we saw that temporary-help service business averaged 19 percent of the monthly gains in total nonfarm payrolls, this is a much greater number than the 2.2 percent experienced during the July-October period.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, other major industries including wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities and government, showed little employment change over the month. It will be worth it to pay attention to how employment numbers in various industries are affected by the reelection of President Obama. Businesses will also begin to prepare for the impact the Affordable Care Act will have on their human capital strategies.